雅思阅读V42.S2电击试验相关材料-(精选6篇)由网友“F1J”投稿提供,以下是小编收集整理的雅思阅读V42.S2电击试验相关材料-,仅供参考,欢迎大家阅读。
篇1:雅思阅读V42.S2电击试验相关材料-1
雅思阅读V42.S2电击试验相关材料-1
v42s2电击试验这篇文章非常难懂,幸好有两位朋友热情相助,分别从《参考消息》和这个实验的.创始人的个人网站找到了相关材料,发给无忧雅思网友共享。
Milgram’s Study of Obedience
Aims: Milgram was sceptical about the idea that only strict authoritive figures could afflict the horrors seen during World War Two by the Nazis. He wanted to prove this view held by the general public wrong, by doing an obedience experiment to show that ordinary people of the general public could inflict harm on other human beings.
Procedures: 40 males aged 20-50 were recruited through a newspaper advertisement, and paid $4.50 to participate in a study regarding ’memory’. Participants were introduced to a confederate, Mr. Wallice. Lots were drawn to decide who would be the teacher and who would be the learner (the participant always became the teacher). The learner was strapped into a chair with electrodes on his hands.
The participant was to ask the learner questions, each incorrect answer was punished with an electric shock, beginning at 15 volts (very mild), going up by 15 volts for every incorrect answer up to 450 volts (danger - severe shock, xxx). The learner stated he had a mild heart condition.
Shocks were received in silence up until 300 volts, Mr. Wallice then complained of having heart trouble and pounded on the door to be let out. He then refused to answer any more questions. After a short while he became silent and was presumed unconscious or dead.
If the teachers questioned the experimenter (also a confederate), they were presented with four orders:
1. Please continue,
2. The experiment requires you to continue,
3. It is essential that you continue,
4. You have no choice, you must continue.
If the participant still refused to administer any more shocks, they were allowed to stop.
Unknown to the participant, the experimenter was an actor, as was the learner. The lots drawn to distinguish roles were fixed, and the electric shocks WERE NOT REAL.
篇2:雅思阅读V42.S2电击试验相关材料-2
雅思阅读V42.S2电击试验相关材料-2
参考译文:
服从是指按照他人命令去行动的行为,也是人际互动的基本方式之一。但是,服从与从众有着本质的不同。在从众情况下的个体,虽然没有按照自己的本愿去行动,但却是自愿的;而在服从情况下的个体,则完全是在不自愿的情况下,应别人的要求去行动的。服从包括两个方面:对权威人物命令的服从,在有一定组织的群体规范影响下的服从。
关于服从的经典研究是由社会心理学家米尔格拉姆(S.Milgram)于1963年在美国的耶鲁大学进行的。这项研究是社会心理学领域中最具影响力的实验之一。米尔格拉姆通过公开招聘的方式,以每小时付给4.5美元的价格招聘到40名自愿参加者,他们包括教师、工程师、邮局职员、工人和商人,平均年龄在25~50岁之间。
实验者告诉被试,他们将参加一项研究惩罚对学生学习的影响的实验,要求两人一组,用抽签的方式决定其中一人当学生,另一人当教师。教师的任务是朗读配对的关联词,学生的任务是记住这些词,然后教师呈现这些词,让学生在给定的四个词中选择一个正确的答案,如果选错了,教师就通过按电钮给学生以电击作为惩罚。
事实上,研究者事先已经安排了每次抽签的结果总是真正的被试作为教师,而作为学生的却是实验者助手。实验过程中,当学生的假被试和当教师的真被试被分别安排在不同的房间里,学生的胳膊上绑上电极,被绑在椅子上,以便在记忆词汇发生错误时被教师惩罚。
教师与学生之间是通过声讯的方式进行联系的。教师的操作台上每个电键都标明了电击的严重程度,从15V的轻微,到450V的致命。这些电击实际上都是假的,但为了使教师相信整个实验,首先让其接受一次强度为45V的电击作为体验。
在实验中,每当学生出错,主试就命令教师施与电击,而且要逐步加大强度,随着电击强度的增加,学生也由呻吟、叫喊、怒骂逐渐到哀求、讨饶、踢打,最后昏厥。若被试表现犹豫,主试则严厉地督促他们继续实验,并说一切后果由实验者承担。
结果显示,在整个实验过程中,当电压增加到300V时,只有5人拒绝再提高电压;当电压增加到315V时,又有4人拒绝服从命令;电压为330V时,又有2人表示拒绝;之后,在电压达到345V、360V、375V时,又各有1人拒绝服从命令。共有14人(占被试的35%)做出了种种反抗,拒绝执行主试的命令。另外26名被试(占被试的65%)则服从了实验者的.命令,坚持到实验的最后,尽管他们表现出了不同程度的紧张和焦虑。
影响服从的因素很多,概括起来主要有三个方面:
(1)命令发出者。他的权威性,他对执行命令者是否关心、爱护,他是否监督命令执行的全过程等,都会影响到服从。
(2)命令的执行者。他的道德水平、人格特征以及文化背景等也都会影响到他对命令的服从。
(3)情境因素。例如是否有人支持自己的拒绝行为,周围人的榜样行为怎样,奖励结构的设置情况,自己拒绝或执行命令的行为反馈情况怎样等,也会影响到个体的服从行为。
社会心理学家认为个体之所以会有服从行为,主要的原因是两个。
一、合法权力。我们通常认为,在一定情境下,社会赋予了某些社会角色更大的权力,而自己有服从他们的义务。比如学生应该服从教师,病人应该服从医生等,在实验室中,被试就应该服从主试,特别是陌生的情境更加强了被试服从主试命令的准备状态。
二、责任转移。一般情况下,我们对于自己的行为都有自己的责任意识,如果我们认为造成某种行为的责任不在自己,特别是当有指挥官主动承担责任时,我们就会认为该行为的主导者不在自己,而在指挥官。因此,我们就不需要对此行为负责,于是发生了责任转移,使得人们不考虑自己的行为后果。
篇3:雅思阅读
1、词汇量
阅读速度和单词掌握程度成正比,一个句子中有一半的单词不认识,肯定似懂非懂,免不了再三重复(虽然重复读5遍也不会懂),自然拉慢了整体阅读速度。怎么有效解决这个问题?
①你至少需要掌握3800个雅思核心词汇;大家都知道扩大词汇量,可是你背了一堆在雅思阅读中很少出现或者甚至不会出现的词,这样无异于在浪费宝贵的备考时间,对阅读分数的提高没有实质帮助。
② 学会整理收集替换词雅思阅读最大的出题点就是同义替换词,这些替换词很善于伪装,这是大家在前期备考需要重点花费时间仔细整理的内容。
单词的重要性强调一万遍也不嫌多,因为总有考鸭想一步登天,单词不到位,你还想要啥自行车?
2、长难句
每篇文章都是由无数句子组成,而能不能读懂长难句,是读顺整篇文章的关键,
单词掌握熟练后,就要提升语法能力,理清句子结构,做到快速提取主谓宾,否则只能一个单词一个单词拼句子。
这就好比,虽然2+2+2+2+2也能算出结果为10,但2*5岂不是快速得多?
3、掌握雅思阅读重点句型
转折、并列、因果、定从,对这些相关的语法知识提前学习和了解。
阅读要分清重点和非重点,按照重要性分配时间。一般而言,大多数文章是按照“总—分、分—总,总—分—总”逻辑展开的。
建议大家精读,首段、第二段、最后一段,理清全文逻辑,扫读其余信息。在“首、二、末”三段中同样遵循精读第一句、第二句、最后一句
理清本段主旨,扫读其余信息。一些无关信息,如用于举例的For example,人物头衔、工作单位等等一扫而过即可。
4、阅读习惯
文章只读一遍,一遍解决所有问题,不要无意义的重读句子,不要习惯性的来回反复。
当你被某道题绊住时,不要犹疑徘徊,要有当机立断、继续前进的勇气。
同样不要默读文章,它会严重拖累阅读速度
5、保持关键词的敏感度
先看题划关键词,再带着目的开始看原文,更有针对性,效率更高。
阅读原文的时候,对于时间、数字、名词、形容词,保持足够的敏感度。
对于转折句提高警惕,However后,but后,instead后往往能反映作者的真实意图。
6、做题策略
审题(仔细阅读题干要求)
定位(根据题干和选项关键词用笔记定位原文)
理解(包括理解相关原文和选项,对比得出答案)
当然,如果你在考场上,不喜欢做笔记,也可以推荐一个小技巧——
就是先做细节信息题(包括细节匹配题、TFNG 题,填空题);
最后做主旨大意题(Heading 题)
因为当你对整篇文章内容比较了解的时候标题配对题会更加容易。
要想做好雅思阅读部分,就要做好时间的把控,每篇文章要控制在20分钟以内。
最后,建议各位考鸭一定要先把基础打好,踏实把每套真题做透,参考以上的做题方法,在平时的训练中培养良好的做题习惯,在考试中做到更好的发挥。
篇4:雅思阅读
精读是什么?有些同学觉得做好标记就可以,有些同学觉得是把握文章的主旨和态度,还有些同学觉得是要在雅思阅读中抓住所有细节。
那么,怎么样才算精读了一篇阅读真题呢?你可以参考这两个标准:
1、不要求每个单词都背下来,但对重要位置上的生词应在查阅好以后记录,关键句和长难句要对照着翻译出来。打个比方,这不是让你把100多集的连续剧每集都背下来,而是让你复述情节发展的线索,而这离不开对生词节点的打通。
2、读懂文章主旨、作者态度和写作结构,对写作背景有所准备。从雅思标准中可以看出,做对题目要求深刻的理解,所以基础不好或者词汇量低的同学更应该把握文章大意,而提高方法也在于用精读好好训练自己。
虽然考场上没看懂一个例子或者一个长句,可能最后也不影响你做对题目,但是不掌握逻辑走错方向的情况还是挺多的。因此希望大家克服怕麻烦的心理,备战阅读。
这具体的方法论,小编在这里给大家奉上剑桥雅思真题精讲里的做法:
一、首先你可以列出 篇章结构:这是一篇什么主题的文章?考察的重点是信息大意还是归纳总结?里面出现的题型有哪些?有了最基础的了解,你就可以将它分类在笔记本里,然后进一步解读:这篇文章主要讲了一个什么故事,或者探讨了什么问题。
如果有条件,利用词典把刚才不明白的地方搞懂,大致能翻译出来主要情节。
二、接着,你可以把读懂这篇文章时用到的必要词汇和词组摘录下来,加以背诵;如果读懂对你来说不是问题,那你就在这些词汇的基础上进行拓展,争取多接触到高频词。
然后就是重要的难点解析了,把文本里自己读不懂的句子,或者中心段落进行整体的翻译,看看它们和答案直接存在着怎样的联系。
一方面就锻炼了你的翻译水平,一方面也让你了解了出题思路,是一种综合性的训练。
三、最后,再把自己的错题记录下来,但不要把正确答案标在一边——复习时你就可以再重新思考一下,不走进同样的谬误了。
毕竟雅思阅读考察的大部分题目都是指向中心的,所以大规模地泛读不是很能提高分数。
希望大家都能利用精读法训练自己,在考场上飞快抓住文章中关键词读懂文章内容,考出好成绩。
篇5:雅思阅读材料精选
雅思阅读材料精选:睡姿的秘密
Foetus
婴儿睡姿
Those who curl up in the foetus position are described as tough on the outside but sensitive at heart. They may be shy when they first meet somebody, but soon relax. The foetus is the most common sleeping position, with women more likely to adopt this position than men。
采用婴儿睡姿的人一般是外刚内柔型的人。初次见面时,他们可能会非常腼腆,但很快就会放松下来。婴儿睡姿是最常见的睡姿,一般来说,女性比男性更多地采用这种睡姿。
Starfish
海星睡姿
Lying on your back with both arms up around the pillow. These sleepers make good friends because they are always ready to listen to others, and offer help when needed. They generally don't like to be the centre of attention。
海星睡姿就是仰躺,两手臂上举放在枕头两边的这种睡姿。采用这种睡姿的人会交很多好朋友,因为他们随时准备聆听他人,帮助他人。这类型的人一般不喜欢成为人们关注的中心。
Freefaller
自由落体睡姿
Lying on your front with your hands around the pillow, and your head turned to one side. Often gregarious and brash people, but can be nervy and thin-skinned underneath, and don't like criticism, or extreme situations。
自由落体睡姿就是俯卧,双手放在枕头上,头朝向一边的睡姿。保持这种睡姿的人喜欢交际,性子急,但在私下里,他们会比较敏感而且脸皮薄。他们不喜欢批评或极端的情况。
Soldier
士兵睡姿
Lying on your back with both arms pinned to your sides. People who sleep in this position are generally quiet and reserved. They don't like a fuss, but set themselves and others high standards。
士兵睡姿就是仰躺,手臂放在身体两侧的睡姿。采用这种睡姿的人通常都比较安静保守。他们不喜欢大惊小怪,对自己和别人都要求很高。
Yearner
向往型睡姿
People who sleep on their side with both arms out in front are said to have an open nature, but can be suspicious, cynical. They are slow to make up their minds, but once they have taken a decision, they are unlikely ever to change it。
向往型睡姿就是侧卧,双臂向前伸展的睡姿。采用这种睡姿的人性情开放,但疑心较重,容易愤世嫉俗。他们做决定时很慢,一旦做出决定,绝不轻易改变。
Log
树干睡姿
Lying on your side with both arms down by your side. These sleepers are easy going, social people who like being part of the in-crowd, and who are trusting of strangers. However, they may be gullible。
树干睡姿的姿势是这样的:身体靠一边平躺,双臂位于身体两侧。采用树干睡姿的人易相处,好交际,喜欢成为人群中的一部分,而且容易相信陌生人。但是,他们也比较容易上当受骗。
雅思阅读材料精选:无线网络辐射或降低男性精子活力
Working on a laptop wirelessly may hamper a man’s chances of fatherhood。
In a study, sperm placed under a laptop connected to the internet through wi-fi suffered more damage than that kept at the same temperature but away from the wireless signal。
The finding is important because previous worries about laptops causing infertility have focused on the heat generated by the machines。
In the latest study, researchers took sperm from 29 men aged 26 to 45 and placed them either under a wi-fi connected laptop or away from the computer。
The laptop then uploaded and downloaded information from the internet for four hours。
At the end of the experiment, 25 percent of the sperm under the laptop had stopped moving and 9 percent showed DNA damage。
By comparison, just 14 percent of samples kept away from the wi-fi stopped moving. And just 3 percent suffered DNA damage, the journal Fertility and Sterility reports。
The wireless connection creates electromagnetic radiation that damages semen, the scientists, from the United States and Argentina, believe。
Lead researcher Conrado Avendano, of Nascentis Medicina Reproductiva in Cordoba, said: ‘Our data suggest that the use of a laptop computer wirelessly connected to the internet and positioned near the male reproductive organs may decrease human sperm quality。
‘At present we do not know whether this effect is induced by all laptop computers connected by WiFi to the internet or what use conditions heighten this effect.’
A separate test with a laptop that was on, but not wirelessly connected, found negligible EM radiation from the machine alone。
According to the American Urological Association, nearly one in six couples in the US have trouble conceiving a baby, and about half the time the man is at the root of the problem。
While the impact of modern technology is still murky, lifestyle does matter, researchers say。
Earlier this month, a report in Fertility And Sterility showed that men who eat a diet rich in fruit and grains and low in red meat, alcohol and coffee have a better shot at getting their partner pregnant during fertility treatment。
使用接入无线网络的笔记本电脑可能会造成男性不育。
在一项研究中,放置在开通无线网络的笔记本下面的精子比放在同一温度下但远离无线信号处的精子受损程度更深。
这项发现很重要,因为之前关于笔记本电脑引起不育的矛头都指向电脑产生的热量。
在这项研究中,研究者收集了29名年龄在26到45岁之间的男子的精液,并将其分别放在连接无线网络的笔记本电脑下面和远离电脑的地方。
接着,笔记本电脑连续四个小时在网上上传下载信息。
实验结束时,放在笔记本电脑下面的精子中,有25%不再游动,另有9%DNA受损。
而远离电脑的精子中,只有14%不再游动,并且仅有3%出现DNA损伤。这项研究报告发表在《生育与不育》期刊上。
来自美国和阿根廷的科学家认为,无线网络产生的电磁辐射会损害男性精子。
阿根廷科尔多瓦生殖医学中心的负责人康拉多?埃芬达诺说:“我们的数据显示,如果把联通无线网络的笔记本放在靠近男性生殖器的地方,会损害精子质量。”
“目前尚不清楚是否所有笔记本连接无线网络时都会产生这种影响,也不清楚何种使用方法会加剧这种作用。”
在另一项实验中,研咳嗽被共饬苛丝簟⒌挥薪油ㄎ尴咄绲牡缒苑淞浚⑾终馐钡牡绱欧浼负蹩梢院雎圆患啤
美国泌尿协会统计的数字显示,有近1/6的美国夫妇不孕不育,其中一半的原因在男方。
研究人员称尽管现代科技的影响还不清楚,但是生活方式至关重要。
本月早些时候,《生育与不育》的一项报告显示,在生育治疗中,多吃水果和谷物,少吃牛羊肉,少喝酒和咖啡的男性让伴侣怀孕的机会更高。
雅思阅读材料精选:英国1/4男性常梦见前女友
The battle against the green-eyed monster is hard enough at the best of times.
Now though, jealous women have even more to worry about. A new study has revealed that one in four men regularly dream about their ex-girlfriends.
And the results, released today, revealed that the men in question were not necessarily pining for their exes by day. In fact, the majority reported high levels of satisfaction with their current relationship.
It is not just ex-partners that British men are dreaming about either.
While romantic-minded girlfriends might allow themselves to believe they are the subject of their man's dreams, they are likely to be usurped during nighttime hours by their partner's colleagues or boss - with 26 percent saying they dream of workmates - or even their mother-in-law.
Conversely, over a third of British women say they spend their nights dreaming about their current partner, followed closely by dreams about their parents and their children.
The Dream Study, carried out by Premier Inn, asked 2,000 Brits about their dream patterns to come up with the findings.
It found the close friendships women tend to hold also impact on their dreams, with a third of women claiming their dreams frequently feature their friends.
However, it seems women are just as capable of fantasy, as 20 percent say they frequently dream about people they have never met.
The stresses and strains of everyday life also affect the way we dream, with 31 percent of people saying they dream about important things that are playing on their mind.
Given the current economic climate, it's unsurprising that 20 percent of Brits dream more if they are under pressure, demonstrating that it is increasingly difficult to forget about work.
平日里风平浪静的时候和嫉妒作斗争就已经够艰难了。
但如今,爱嫉妒的女人们有更多需要担心的了。一项新调查揭示,四分之一的英国男性经常会梦见自己的前女友。
今日发布的这一调查结果显示,会做这种梦的男人不一定白天会想念前女友。事实上,他们中的大多数人报告说对现在的恋情很满意。
出现在英国男性梦中的也不是只有他们的前女友。
浪漫的女人们也许会让自己相信她们是男友梦中的主角,但在男友的梦中,她们的位置很可能会被男友的同事或上司取代。26%的男性说他们会梦见同事,甚至会梦见丈母娘。
与此相反的是,超过三分之一的英国女性说她们晚上通常会梦见自己的现任男友或老公,其次是梦见她们的父母和小孩。
英国酒店Premier Inn开展的这一梦境调查询问了名英国人的梦的类型,从而得出了这些结果。
调查发现,亲密的友情也会对女性的梦产生影响,三分之一女性称自己的好友常会在梦中出现。
然而,女性似乎也善于幻想,20%的女性说她们经常会梦见自己从未见过的人。
日常生活的压力和负担也会影响我们做的梦,31%的人说他们会梦见心头大事。
在当前的经济环境下,有20%的英国人在压力下更多地会梦见和工作相关的事,这并不奇怪。这表明英国人要想把工作抛在脑后将会更难。
雅思阅读材料精选:初夜会改变男人大脑结构?
Losing your virginity really could be life-changing. Having sex apparently alters the structure of the brain – in men, at least.
A Japanese study of tiny spines that occur between brain cells revealed virgin male rats to have far more of them than more sexually experienced counterparts.
This implies the spines drive sex for the first time and then they shrink or disappear. It may one day be possible to create a pill for humans that increases the growth of spines. This could help boost libido, New Scientist reports.
Stuart Tobet, a neuroscientist in the US, said the studies provide a ‘glimpse into how changes in the structure of spines contribute to the ability to display sexual behaviours in rats and perhaps by extrapolation, to other mammals, including humans.’
Once their mission is achieved, the spines are no longer needed and so shrink or disappear.
What is more, the microscopic spines may also affect men’s early sexual encounters, this week’s New Scientist reports.
It was already known that several brain regions linked to sexual behaviour differ in size between the sexes in humans and other animals.
To find out whether an area known to be bigger in males was altered by having sex, the Saitama University researchers compared the brains of male rats who had never had sex before with their more experienced cage-mates.
They found that the number of brain spines was significantly lower in the non-virgins.
Researcher Shinji Tsukahara says the decrease in spines may have been caused by a number of factors, including hormonal changes triggered by the presence of a female.
He said that the spines may serve as a ‘one-way road to learn how to mate’ and once used they are no longer needed.
失去处子之身确实会改变你的人生。初尝禁果会显著地改变人的大脑结构——至少对男人是如此。
日本的一项对于脑细胞间微小脊髓组织的研究揭示,“处男”老鼠相比那些有过性经验的老鼠有更多这种脊髓组织。
这意味着这种脊髓组织促使老鼠发生了初次性行为,并在初夜过后变少或消失。《新科学家》报告称,将来有可能会发明出一种能令这种脊髓组织增加的药丸,为人类服务。这种药丸将有助于提升性欲。
美国神经学家斯图亚特?托比特说,这些研究让人们能够“一睹大脑脊髓结构的改变对于老鼠性能力的影响,这种影响也许可以推及包括人类在内的其他哺乳动物。”
一旦这种脊髓组织的使命完成了,它们就不再被需要,因而也就减少或消失了。
而且,据《新科学家》本周的报道,这种微小的脊髓组织还会影响男人的早期性行为。
现在已经获知人类和其他动物的几个和性行为相关的大脑区域在两性之间存在着大小之差。
为了查明性行为是否会改变男性较大的这块大脑区域,埼玉大学的研究人员将从未有过性生活的雄性老鼠和有过性经验的雄性老鼠的大脑做了比较。
他们发现,“非处”老鼠的这种大脑脊髓组织的数量明显比“处男”老鼠要低。
研究人员冢原慎司说,脊髓组织的减少可能是由多种因素引起的,包括雌性出现引发的荷尔蒙的改变。
他说,脊髓组织也许是“学习如何性交的单行道”,一旦被使用过,它们就不再被需要。
篇6:雅思阅读模拟题
Part I
Reading Passage 1
You should spend about 20 minutes on Questions 1-14 which are based on
Reading Passage 1 below.
Next Year Marks the EU's 50th Anniversary of the Treaty
A.
After a period of introversion and stunned self-disbelief, continental
European governments will recover their enthusiasm for pan-European
institution-building in 2007. Whether the European public will welcome a return
to what voters in two countries had rejected so short a time before is another
matter.
B.
There are several reasons for Europe’s recovering self-confidence. For
years European economies had been lagging dismally behind America (to say
nothing of Asia), but in 2006 the large continental economies had one of their
best years for a decade, briefly outstripping America in terms of growth. Since
politics often reacts to economic change with a lag, 2006’s improvement in
economic growth will have its impact in 2007, though the recovery may be ebbing
by then.
C.
The coming year also marks a particular point in a political cycle so
regular that it almost seems to amount to a natural law. Every four or five
years, European countries take a large stride towards further integration by
signing a new treaty: the Maastricht treaty in 1992, the Treaty of Amsterdam in
1997, the Treaty of Nice in 2001. And in 2005 they were supposed to ratify a
European constitution, laying the ground for yet more integration—until the calm
rhythm was rudely shattered by French and Dutch voters. But the political
impetus to sign something every four or five years has only been interrupted,
not immobilised, by this setback.
D.
In 2007 the European Union marks the 50th anniversary of another treaty—the
Treaty of Rome, its founding charter. Government leaders have already agreed to
celebrate it ceremoniously, restating their commitment to “ever closer union”
and the basic ideals of European unity. By itself, and in normal circumstances,
the EU’s 50th-birthday greeting to itself would be fairly meaningless, a routine
expression of European good fellowship. But it does not take a Machiavelli to
spot that once governments have signed the declaration (and it seems unlikely
anyone would be so uncollegiate as to veto it) they will already be halfway
towards committing themselves to a new treaty. All that will be necessary will
be to incorporate the 50th-anniversary declaration into a new treaty containing
a number of institutional and other reforms extracted from the failed attempt at
constitution-building and—hey presto—a new quasi-constitution will be ready.
E.
According to the German government—which holds the EU’s agenda-setting
presidency during the first half of 2007—there will be a new draft of a
slimmed-down constitution ready by the middle of the year, perhaps to put to
voters, perhaps not. There would then be a couple of years in which it will be
discussed, approved by parliaments and, perhaps, put to voters if that is deemed
unavoidable. Then, according to bureaucratic planners in Brussels and Berlin,
blithely ignoring the possibility of public rejection, the whole thing will be
signed, sealed and a new constitution delivered in 2009-10. Europe will be
nicely back on schedule. Its four-to-five-year cycle of integration will have
missed only one beat.
F.
The resurrection of the European constitution will be made more likely in
2007 because of what is happening in national capitals. The European Union is
not really an autonomous organisation. If it functions, it is because the
leaders of the big continental countries want it to, reckoning that an active
European policy will help them get done what they want to do in their own
countries.
G.
That did not happen in 2005-06. Defensive, cynical and self-destructive,
the leaders of the three largest euro-zone countries—France, Italy and
Germany—were stumbling towards their unlamented ends. They saw no reason to
pursue any sort of European policy and the EU, as a result, barely functioned.
But by the middle of 2007 all three will have gone, and this fact alone will
transform the European political landscape.
H.
The upshot is that the politics of the three large continental countries,
bureaucratic momentum and the economics of recovery will all be aligned to give
a push towards integration in 2007. That does not mean the momentum will be
irresistible or even popular. The British government, for one, will almost
certainly not want to go with the flow, beginning yet another chapter in the
long history of confrontation between Britain and the rest of Europe. More
important, the voters will want a say. They rejected the constitution in 2005.
It would be foolish to assume they will accept it after 2007 just as a result of
an artful bit of tinkering.
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